Thirty years into the transition to regulated cannabis markets, teen use and ease of access are at or near the lowest levels ever recorded. It’s prohibition — not legalization — that put kids most at risk.
This is an op-ed contribution from Adam J. Smith, Executive Director of the Marijuana Policy Project. The views expressed are his own.
Legend has it that 420’s association with cannabis began in 1971 with a small group of California high school students who used “420” as a code to meet after school, at 4:20 pm, to get high.
In 1971, cannabis was illegal everywhere and there were more than 400,000 cannabis arrests across the U.S. Despite that, those kids had no trouble buying weed. Over the next quarter century of zero tolerance policies and rising arrest rates, teens’ access only increased.
By 1996, when California became the first state to legalize cannabis for medical use, arrests surpassed 700,000 per year. That would rise to more than 870,000 before Colorado and Washington became the first states to legalize adult-use markets in 2012.
Those millions of arrests, and convictions, and quite often incarcerations, and the cascading negative externalities that go with them, fell overwhelmingly — in every single state — on the young, the poor, and people of color.
Today, 24 states have legal adult-use cannabis markets, and those states have reduced arrests by an average of 84%, driving annual U.S. cannabis arrests down from nearly 900,000 to just over 200,000.
What they predicted vs. what happened
“Where marijuana is legal, young people are more likely to use it.”
Massachusetts Governor Charlie Baker and Boston Mayor Marty Walsh, opposing their state’s legalization initiative, Boston Globe, March 2016
“If you legalize marijuana, you’re gonna kill your kids.”
Nebraska Governor Pete Ricketts, 2021
In Massachusetts, teen cannabis use is down 25% since Baker and Walsh made those predictions.
They were wrong
Thirty years into our transition to regulated markets, teen use and ease of access are at or near the lowest levels ever recorded. It’s prohibition, not regulated markets, that increases kids’ access to cannabis and puts them most at risk.
According to the National Institute of Drug Abuse’s Monitoring the Future, the largest longitudinal teen drug use survey in the United States, the percentage of eighth graders reporting that cannabis is “easy” or “fairly easy” to obtain has fallen from a high of 55% in 1996 to 25% today. Among tenth graders, “easy” or “fairly easy” access is down from 80% to 41%; and among twelfth graders, from more than 90% to 65%.
Legalization and youth access — by the numbers
84%
Average reduction in cannabis arrests in states with legal adult-use markets
Annual U.S. arrests fell from nearly 900,000 to just over 200,000
25%
Drop in teen cannabis use in Massachusetts since legalization
Despite predictions from Gov. Baker and Mayor Walsh that teen use would rise
55% → 25%
8th graders who said cannabis was “easy to obtain”: 1996 vs. today
Source: NIH Monitoring the Future, the largest longitudinal teen drug use survey in the U.S.
Source: Marijuana Policy Project analysis; NIH Monitoring the Future survey; CDC. Prohibition gave teenagers easier access. Regulated markets are changing that.
And it’s not just access. CDC data shows that past-month teen cannabis use has declined significantly in virtually every state that has established a regulated market.
It is illicit sellers — not licensed dispensaries with mandatory ID checks — who are the primary source of cannabis for teenagers.
Adam J. Smith, Executive Director, Marijuana Policy Project
Why regulated markets work better for kids
When adult consumers move from illicit into regulated markets, demand in the illicit market falls, and with it, the number of sellers. And it is illicit sellers — not licensed dispensaries with mandatory ID checks — who are the primary source of cannabis for teenagers.
We can do a better job of keeping cannabis away from kids, specifically those under 18, but we’re already making good progress. It starts by moving as much of the cannabis trade as possible off the streets and into regulated markets and the hands of licensed sellers with every legal and economic incentive to refuse to sell to anyone under 21.
And we know that people who delay substance use into adulthood have far lower rates of substance abuse than those who started as teens.
The plot twist in the 4/20 origin story
Those kids in California in 1971 getting high after school at 4:20 had no trouble buying marijuana under prohibition, despite hundreds of thousands of arrests per year. Today, cannabis is legal for adults in California, and in 23 other states, arrests are way down, and kids have a much harder time getting access to it.
The 420 crew probably would have hated legalization for just that reason. But they’re senior citizens now, and I’m guessing they support it. Because despite having launched the most successful cannabis meme in history, which inspired the plant’s unofficial holiday, they probably don’t want their teenage grandkids smoking weed.
Adam J. Smith is the Executive Director of the Marijuana Policy Project, the nation’s largest cannabis policy organization. Data cited from the NIH Monitoring the Future survey and CDC. Links to source reports to be added before publication.